Manchester United can finish third in Premier League table as Jamie Carragher says club are 'guaranteed Champions League football'

Jamie Carragher believes Champions League qualification is "guaranteed" for Manchester United this season following their 1-0 win against Everton on Monday.

Benjamin Sesko's third goal off the bench in four games sealed a 1-0 win over the Toffees to extend Michael Carrick's unbeaten run to six games.

That goal has seen United rise back up to fourth in the Premier League table, this time with a three-point lead over fifth-placed Chelsea, who dropped points at home to Burnley on Saturday.

And with third-placed Aston Villa now just three points ahead of them - with Unai Emery's side, Chelsea and Liverpool all facing European knockout football in March - Carragher has backed United to return to the Champions League.

He also believes that their lesser schedule helps make them nailed on to return to Europe's elite competition.

"Manchester United are virtually a guarantee," Carragher said on Monday Night Football.

"Aston Villa look like they're dropping points at the moment. They've got the European football on a Thursday night.

"Liverpool and Chelsea are both still in the Champions League and the FA Cup, and will want to do well in at least one of those competitions - a semi-final or a final.

"I can't see Manchester United not making it."

Neville: Man Utd can finish third after Carrick impact
Neville said on the Gary Neville Podcast: "There was a period for about five or six weeks where they played games where you kept thinking they could go into the top four and they didn't. And now they are, they've got an incredible opportunity to finish in the top four.

"I think they will. The other teams start playing in Europe, they've got distractions. United haven't got any distractions.

"That doesn't mean anything; they've had no game for two weeks and haven't played particularly well here [at Everton] but I just think they're now starting to get over the line in games where they wouldn't have done before.

"I think they could finish third, I really do think they could finish third. I said a couple of weeks ago I thought Villa might just get pulled back a little bit.

"These teams have got European football in front of them and that's a big distraction. Manchester United don't have that and I think they're in a decent place.

"You look at the players out there, they go over to celebrate, they look like they're in a decent sort of mood. They're winning when they play well, they're winning when they don't play well, they're picking up a point when they didn't play well at West Ham, so all the right things are starting to happen.

"They've hit a really good run, I do think they'll finish third or fourth.

"I've probably said at times in this last three months: Manchester United have no chance of finishing the Champions League, but this is just a bizarre season.

"Teams are dropping points: Chelsea dropped points against Burnley on Saturday, Villa dropped points, Liverpool obviously did win in the end, but yeah I think United get there now and that'll be a big move in terms of where they were last season.

"I think it'd be a big move to get into Champions League, considering where they were a few weeks ago, obviously when they sack a manager and you don't think for the life of you that they can go and beat Arsenal and Manchester City and everyone else that they've beaten in this last few weeks. It's been an incredible points total that's been pulled together.

"And I think they're now, I won't say clear favourites to finish in the top four, but they are in pole position."
What does the supercomputer say?
Despite Neville and Carragher's claims, United are currently predicted to finish fifth in the Premier League table.

The Opta supercomputer says they are less likely than Aston Villa and Liverpool to finish in the top four this season.

Despite their recent slump, Villa have a 95.9 per cent chance of securing Champions League football next season, with Liverpool the next best-placed team on 75.4 per cent. United are just behind Arne Slot's side on 72 per cent.

However, fifth-place is highly likely to be a Champions League spot next season due to the performance of English teams in European competitions this season.

UEFA's coefficient table measures how each country's clubs perform across the three European competitions. The top two at the end of the campaign are awarded extra Champions League places, known as European Performance Spots.

England is the only nation with all of its teams still active in European competition, with Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace facing knockout phase play-offs in the Europa League and Conference League respectively, along with Newcastle in the Champions League.

With so much European football still to come this season, England are not yet mathematically assured of a top-two finish in the coefficient table. Their place in last season's top two was not confirmed until April.

However, Opta believe it's already a done deal. Their expected points model gives England a 100 per cent chance of achieving a top-two finish.