Why Terrorism Is Surging Again in Nigeria - Expert Reveal Details

- Expert reveals how Niger's withdrawal from a key anti-terror coalition may have opened the gates for Boko Haram and ISWAP's resurgence

All Facts Newspaper | 10/5/2025

The resurgence of terrorism attacks in Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad region is no coincidence, says Dr. Joshua Bolarinwa, an Army General and security expert who currently heads the Division of Security and Strategic Studies at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA). According to him, the sudden escalation in insurgent activities may be directly linked to the recent withdrawal of Niger Republic from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).

Dr. Bolarinwa, in a detailed assessment posted via social media, stated that Niger's exit from the MNJTF following its July 2023 military coup should not come as a surprise, but its consequences could be dire. The MNJTF, a regional military coalition reactivated in 2015 to fight Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), had recorded several successful operations in the region - until now.

"The withdrawal of Niger creates a vacuum,ÔÇØ he warned. "It will not only increase the frequency of insurgent attacks but also significantly weaken our existing counter-insurgency framework.ÔÇØ

The MNJTF was originally formed in 1998 and later revitalized in 2015 to battle the relentless violence of Boko Haram, which had plunged Nigeria and its Lake Chad Basin neighbors-Chad, Cameroon, and Niger-into chaos. Backed by the African Union and the United Nations, the task force grew to a formidable strength of over 10,000 troops.

Its major offensive in 2016 liberated several territories and hostages, dismantled training camps, and killed hundreds of insurgents. So effective was its campaign that the United Nations Department for Political Affairs acknowledged its contributions to regional peace.

However, the 2023 coup in Niger changed everything.

Following the military takeover, ECOWAS imposed sanctions and threatened military intervention, prompting Niger to begin severing ties with key regional structures-including the MNJTF. Although the head of the junta, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, later claimed Niger remained part of the force, actions on the ground suggest otherwise.

Security patrols along Niger's border with Nigeria-the longest shared border spanning 1,608 kilometers-have reportedly been halted, creating massive blind spots. These unguarded routes have now become open doors for insurgents and weapons smugglers from the Sahel and North Africa, Dr. Bolarinwa observed.

"In particular, places like Gaidam in Yobe State, Mallam Fatori, and Damasak near Lake Chad are witnessing a fresh influx of foreign fighters,ÔÇØ he disclosed.

Worse still, Niger's disengagement undermines the collective efforts of the task force. The country has long been a key pillar in counter-terrorism operations, offering strategic military support, intelligence, and border control. "Without Niger, not only Nigeria but the entire Sahel region becomes vulnerable,ÔÇØ Bolarinwa warned.

"The absence of a coordinated border defense system makes it easier for terrorist cells to regroup, rearm, and launch fresh attacks,ÔÇØ he added, highlighting that Boko Haram and ISWAP now have new breathing space.

This alarming development, according to the analyst, is already setting back years of progress and threatens to unravel the sacrifices made by soldiers across the region.

To salvage terrorism the situation, Dr. Bolarinwa is calling for urgent diplomatic engagement with Niger to reintegrate the country into MNJTF operations. "We need cohesion in the face of a shared threat. Regional collaboration is our only hope against transnational terrorism,ÔÇØ he said.

He urged ECOWAS and the African Union to prioritize regional security over political tensions, warning that failure to act could plunge the region into another dark era of terror and humanitarian crises.

With insurgent groups reportedly regaining strength and foreign combatants streaming into Nigeria's northern territories, the signs are clear: the war on terror is far from over - and the consequences of fractured regional alliances are already being felt. - Terrorism Terrorism